George invited me to a talk in Houston from the World Affairs Council of Houston. Dr. Bruce Bechtol, the associate professor of political science at Angelo State University, gave the talk on North Korea. He wrote the Defiant Failed State, a book on the threat North Korea poses and how to handle it. The hour and half talk was quite informative and I learned a lot that I didn't know before.
He started out saying something funny. You could watch CNN and MSNBC if you're on the left. Watch FOX on right. Or PBS if you're really bored.
Conventional weapons in North Korea is a very compelling issue but hardly ever highlighted on the news. There's 1.1 million men and women in the armed forces. Food and fuel is inadequate but that's still a lot of stuff! They also have 3000 pontoon bridges to cross the river anytime to invade South Korea.
South Korea has the 12th largest GDP in the world. North Korea does not have enough GDP to do an arms race with South Korea. So North Korea tends to concentrate on asymmetric forces while traditional forces remain large and adequately maintained. The three key areas that North Korea focus on are
1. Long range artillery (~900 systems)
2. Ballistic missiles
3. Special operation forces
The North Korean plan is to take over Seoul and then start dealing. 7/10 of the army is deployed for invasion. To support their military, North Korea sells weapons and drugs everywhere. For instance, in October 2009, a huge former Soviet aircraft from North Korea was caught in Thailand. The shipment was going to five different countries including New Zealand.
The succession issue is a serious issue. Kim Jong-Il is seriously ill and will probably only live 3-5 years. Since his oldest son have fallen out of favor, the youngest son have been the focus. However, there's been only 18 months to train his youngest son. If the father dies, will the son Kim Jong-Un be able to hold the state together? If not, there could be civil war, collapse, or invasion of South Korea.
This was the gist of his talk. We were allowed a Q&A session afterwards. Some questions and answers:
Q) Why were his sons educated in Switzerland?
A) Switzerland has the best schools. The elite wants to feel elite.
Q) Why not just take out North Korea?
A) It's Seoul's decision. Seoul will never let action first again North Korea.
Afterwards, there was a book selling so of course I paid the $20 to get a signed book. The book can also be bought here:
http://www.amazon.com/Defiant-Failed-State-International-Security/dp/1597975311
After this talk, I'm definitely thinking of joining the world affairs council of Houston. It's only $25 for students. Actually, I'll recommend it for anyone interested in foreign affairs and international issues. Website here:
https://www.wachouston.org//assnfe/enrollme.asp?SnID=554501257
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